2020 primary takeaways Joe 拜登 提名失败

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  • 2020年3月11日
大拇指后

华盛顿(美联社)—乔·拜登’s path to the Democratic presidential nomination widened significantly 星期二 with commanding victories in Mississippi, Missouri and Michigan, a 州 that his rival Bernie 桑德斯 won four years ago. Key takeaways:

拜登已成为该比赛的可靠别克。

随着他以一系列决定性的胜利扩大了他对桑德斯的领先优势,他的势头加快了。前副总统’桑德斯在密歇根州取得了可观的胜利,桑德斯既要依靠自己来支持自己的案子,又要依靠实际的代表数学。他参加了拜登(Biden)背后约96名代表的活动,而密歇根州(Michigan)是阻止该领先优势扩大的最佳选择。 (民主党需要1,991名代表才能提名。)

实际上,桑德斯失去了一个大州,四年前他对希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的不满使他有理由继续他的总统竞选,直到6月提名日历为止。这次,超级星期二之后的第一轮投票与上周相同’令人惊讶的结果:拜登(Biden)庆祝活动和桑德斯(Sanders)的陡峭攀登。

拜登 isn’t just leaning on his base of African Americans. AP VoteCast surveys in Michigan and Missouri also show he topped 桑德斯 in suburbs and, notably, across small-town and rural counties, where 桑德斯 had led Clinton in 2016.

“We need you, we want you, and there’s a place in our campaign for each of you, 拜登 said 星期二 night. I want to thank Bernie 桑德斯 and his supporters for their tireless energy and their passion. We share a common goal, and together we’ll beat Donald Trump.”

桑德斯’糟糕的三月可以这样解释:拜登’s net delegate gains out of Alabama last week and Mississippi on 星期二 — two Republican-dominated 州s — essentially cancel out the delegate advantage that 桑德斯 pulled out of California, which has the largest delegate trove.

桑德斯 stayed in the race until June four years ago, fueled in no small part by his Michigan primary victory. This time, the path going forward looks much different.

佛蒙特州参议员面临着艰难的选择。他是否会尝试一些新的东西:以拜登更积极地追随拜登,成为一个机构人物,一个相对的外交政策鹰派,一个威胁社会保障的预算中间人?在过去的两周中,几乎没有证据表明任何改变都会改变比赛的基础。

Another option: 桑德斯 can continue advocating for the issues that his supporters hold dear, like “Medicare for All” and free college, not explicitly ceding the nomination but using his base to pressure a 拜登-led party to move as far left as possible.

他星期二晚上回到了佛蒙特州的家中。

而桑德斯可以’克服困难。上周二在密西西比州再次发生了此事,就像上周的南部超级周二州和之前的南卡罗来纳州一样。根据AP VoteCast的数据,密西西比州约有70%’民主党的主要选民是非洲裔美国人;其中有86%支持拜登。

The reality remains: 桑德斯 has not made enough inroads in that critical Democratic constituency to have a clear path to becoming the nominee.

桑德斯 has made universal 卫生保健 his main policy focus. But when it comes to whom 人 trust on 卫生保健, voters on 星期二 were somewhat more comfortable with 拜登.

When asked who would best be able to handle 卫生保健 as president, 41% of Michigan voters said they preferred 拜登, according to AP VoteCast. Just 31% liked 桑德斯. 拜登 also led on 卫生保健 in Mississippi, while Missouri was evenly split between both of them.

拜登和桑德斯由于冠状病毒的传播而取消了竞选集会,这是一个罕见的外部事件,使总统竞选暂时停止。两名男子原计划周二晚上在观看晚会上向支持者讲话,但引用了公共健康警告。他们的未来计划悬而未决。

That likely affects 桑德斯 more, since the Vermont senator, much like President Donald Trump, campaigns as a populist who addresses large rallies with thousands of supporters. But 拜登 has just started to draw large crowds as well.

At the least, 拜登 and 桑德斯 now have plenty of money to continue television and social media advertising in coming primary 州s. They will need it for a lineup of 州s that includes Illinois, Ohio, Florida and Arizona.

#参考

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